The window of the hottest oil price rise may be di

2022-07-30
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On December 1, the weighted average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta, with a benchmark period of October 7, continued to move at a rate of 3.98%, and the price 1 rise was only 0.02% away from the 4% price adjustment red line, which once triggered the market's expectations for the price increase of refined oil. However, the change rate did not break through 4% as scheduled on December 2, but fell slightly to 3.96%, and fell further to 3.80% on December 5. Industry analysts believe that, at present, it is not very likely that the price of refined oil will rise in the near future; Whether the window for raising the price within this month can be opened depends on the "face" of international crude oil prices in the next two to three weeks

the price adjustment is expected to decrease

the international oil price rose continuously in the first two days of December. However, affected by the German French leaders' summit, US economic data and the news that S & P listed the credit ratings of several EU countries on the watch list, the international oil price closed flat after a sharp shock on the 5th. Light crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose slightly by 3 cents to close at $100.99 a barrel; London North Sea Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell slightly by 13 cents to close at US $109.81 a barrel

the continuous moving change rate of the weighted average price of crude oil in the three places has not continued the upward trend of a few days ago, and has fallen continuously in the last two statistical days. According to the latest statistical data of axis Xiwang energy, as of December 5, the continuous moving change rate of the weighted average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta has dropped to 3.80%, which is far from the red line of 4%

"at present, the expectation of product oil price increase is not so strong." Liaokaishun, an energy analyst at axense Xiwang, told the China Securities Journal, "it is hard to say whether the price adjustment window will open this month. The key depends on the changes in the price of crude oil in the next two to three weeks. Generally, the price of crude oil can only be raised if it reaches more than $115/barrel."

however, he thinks it difficult to judge the future oil price trend. On the one hand, the economic fundamentals do not support the continued rise of oil prices, but on the other hand, the geopolitical situation, especially the tension in Iran, supports oil prices all the time, and the situation of soaring oil prices is not impossible

local oil shortage reappears

although the favorable conditions for China's foreign trade export of plastic extruders are increasing in the oil price of finished products in the past two days, the price adjustment expectation since the end of November has "boosted" the tension of diesel supply in some regions to a certain extent. According to the statistical monitoring of anxins Xiwang energy, it needs to be unloaded and cleaned from November 25. The tight supply of diesel oil at gas stations in some regions reappears, especially in East China

"the expected increase in the price of refined oil in the early stage led to the control of sales by the sales company, and the completion of the sales task in the middle and late November also led to the reduction of wholesale by the sales company, which was the main reason for the tight diesel supply this time." Liaokaishun analyzed

according to the tracking data of anxins Xiwang energy on nearly 300 private service stations and nearly 350 main service stations nationwide, at present, 20% of the private service stations are selling at excessive prices, 14% of the private service stations and 12% of the main service stations with one-way control of vertical cylinders are limited in refueling, 16% of the private service stations and 5% of the main service stations are cut off, and 5% of the main service stations are queuing for refueling. 53% of private service stations and 79% of main service stations can ensure normal sales

anxins Xiwang energy predicts that the situation of private service stations will still be difficult to improve significantly this week. However, the full load operation of the main gas stations and the policy guidance of increasing diesel and reducing steam will increase the supply. "At present, the operating rate of the refinery is still relatively high, and it is expected that the tight supply of diesel will be gradually relieved." Liaokaishun said

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