The export restraint policy of the hottest countri

2022-07-29
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The national export inhibition policy will not change the long-term trend of the iron and steel industry. Andersen Securities believes that there is insufficient reason for the state to continue to issue strict export inhibition policies in the near future. The impact of policy regulation on iron and steel exports is short-term and will not fundamentally change the trend

according to the relevant media on October 10, on October 7, according to the analysis of the trend of the steel industry in October, the industry analyst of Anxin Securities said that the relative P/E ratio of the steel index was still within the acceptable range as of 2016. Increasing income without increasing profit will be a common phenomenon in the third quarter performance of steel companies without their own mines. There is not enough reason for the state to continue to issue strict policies to curb steel exports in the near future. The impact of policy regulation on steel export is short-term and will not fundamentally change the trend

at present, the main driving force for the rise of steel stocks still comes from the comparative valuation advantage. From the perspective of the relative P/E ratio of the steel index, it is currently at the level of less than 0.6, near the average level in recent years, within an acceptable range. If the market continues to rise, "buy one thousand points" will still be one of the operation strategies of steel stocks

according to the analysis of Anxin securities, listed companies will successively disclose the performance of the third quarter in October. It will be a common phenomenon for iron and steel companies without their own mines to increase revenue without increasing profit. The main reason still comes from the fact that it will effectively improve the operation stability of the power system, adjust the frequency, compensate for load fluctuations, reduce the power supply cost and improve the utilization rate of power equipment. At present, the rise in steel prices is mainly driven by the cost, Profitability has not improved. In the third quarter, although most steel prices rose by a small margin, hot rolling, galvanizing and color coating fell by a small margin. However, the rise in raw material prices is still more ferocious with the use of food plastic bags sealed inside, which has squeezed the profitability of iron and steel enterprises, especially those without their own mines. According to the calculation of tracking data, from the perspective of market arbitrage, the profitability of steel enterprises did not improve in the third quarter. It should be emphasized that it is still believed that the profitability of major steel varieties in the third quarter may reach the bottom area

recently, it is widely rumored that the relevant state departments will continue to introduce regulatory measures to curb steel exports, which is also one of the main reasons for the slight adjustment of steel stocks. According to a more rational analysis, there are insufficient reasons for the state to continue to issue strict policies to curb steel exports in the near future. In April, 2007, China's daily net export of steel was 224000 tons, reaching the highest point in history. After that, the downward trend was very obvious. In August, it was 35.3% lower than that in April. Such a large decline indicates that the policy of restraining exports in the early stage has begun to play its role, and may not fully reflect the role of the policy. In this context, it seems unreasonable to continue to introduce the control measures to restrain exports. Moreover, Anxin securities speculates that it will take time for the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and the iron and steel industry association to coordinate and finally reach a consensus

Andersen Securities believes that the impact of policy regulation on steel export is short-term and will not fundamentally change the trend. When the state raised export tax rebates to encourage steel exports, steel imports continued to increase. In recent years, when the state continued to reduce export tax rebates or even impose export tariffs to curb steel exports, steel exports continued to increase significantly. From the historical experience of easy overflow, the adjustment of export policy can not affect the state of export for a long time. The main reasons for China's large-scale export of iron and steel are the serious overcapacity in China, the relatively low cost of products and the improvement of the competitiveness of iron and steel products

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